Session 10

Session 10

SESSION 10: REVIEW

Topics covered:

·       Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Brief Overview/ Summary

·       Technology Assessment and Forecasting

As usual, the session began with an introduction by Professor Gurinder Shahi on technology assessment and forecasting. He started out by providing us with examples of drivers for technology assessment and forecasting. They are:

·      Exponential growth in the development of new technologies with the potential to alter the world

·      Realization of the importance of possessing an understanding of the changes that might result from a new technological innovation in terms of economic change, social change, ethical change, legal change, environmental change and many other aspects of society today.

·      Knowing which technological advancements to invest and pursue given the limited resources available.

After being presented with reasons why technological assessment and forecasting is so important, we were shown what exactly is encompassed by technology assessment and forecasting.

Technology assessment and forecasting involves the consideration of 2 different aspects of society - Economic/Business considerations and Technological considerations.

·      Economic/Business Considerations

o   Growth implications of a new technology. How might the new technology affect sales, earnings, and the market share of the business?

o   Competitive implications of the emerging technology. Will the new technology provide the business with performance advantages or cost savings?

o   Adoption implications. How much will it cost for the business to adopt the new technology? How long is needed to recover the initial adoption cost?

·      Technology Considerations

o   Compatibility considerations. Will the new technology be compatible with existing technologies currently implemented?

o   Potential applications. How might the new technology be applied to synergize with existing technology/processes?

o   Alternative competing technologies. Is there an alternative, cheaper technology available that provides the same benefits as the new technology in question?

Following that, Prof went on to describe a couple of ways that technology assessment and forecasting can be conducted.

These are:

·      Brainstorming exercises

·      Trend Analysis and Extrapolation of current trends

·      Technology Roadmap-ing

·      Simulation Modeling

·     The Delphi Method

Interesting Observations and Ideas/Key Takeaways

On the topic of the importance of technology assessment and forecasting, I present to you this article - Brain Control

This article describes how a professor in MIT has managed to alter the behavior of mice by using light to turn neurons in the brain of the mouse on or off.

Ed Boyden has created an implant that is able to trigger neurons in the brain of mice through the use of flashing LEDs, effectively controlling the behavior of these mice.

“Mouse brains, or any other brains, wouldn't normally respond to embedded lights. But Boyden, ….has modified certain brain cells with genes that make light-sensitive proteins in plants, fungi, and bacteria. Because the proteins cause the brains cells to fire when exposed to light, they give Boyden a way to turn the genetically engineered neurons on and off.”

This is Mind-control technology in the making! What if this technology were developed to work on humans? This is one technology where I believe that technology assessment and forecasting is especially important! The possible implications of this technology are endless! The ethical considerations of this technology are enormous!

Issues for Further Discussion

·      How useful do you think technology assessment and forecasting is in the world today?

·      Might there be any way to shorten the time taken for a new technology to make its way down to consumers? Most of the time, “cutting-edge” technologies available to consumers are already “outdated” when the technology is introduced to the consumer market.

·      With regards to the Mind-control article above, are there certain technologies that should NOT be developed? Might it be better if mind-control were not developed? This would prevent the abuse of mind-control technology in the future. Mind-control is indeed a scary thing!

Personal Ratings

(8/10) This session was very interesting. Through the presentation of my peers, I was introduced to many new and emerging technologies that have the potential to change the world. I am very excited for the next few years when these emerging technologies complete the development phase.