Session 10

Session 10

SESSION 10: REVIEW

Topics covered:

·       Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Brief Overview/ Summary

·       Technology Assessment and Forecasting

As usual, the session began with an introduction by Professor Gurinder Shahi on technology assessment and forecasting. He started out by providing us with examples of drivers for technology assessment and forecasting. They are:

·      Exponential growth in the development of new technologies with the potential to alter the world

·      Realization of the importance of possessing an understanding of the changes that might result from a new technological innovation in terms of economic change, social change, ethical change, legal change, environmental change and many other aspects of society today.

·      Knowing which technological advancements to invest and pursue given the limited resources available.

After being presented with reasons why technological assessment and forecasting is so important, we were shown what exactly is encompassed by technology assessment and forecasting.

Technology assessment and forecasting involves the consideration of 2 different aspects of society - Economic/Business considerations and Technological considerations.

·      Economic/Business Considerations

o   Growth implications of a new technology. How might the new technology affect sales, earnings, and the market share of the business?

o   Competitive implications of the emerging technology. Will the new technology provide the business with performance advantages or cost savings?

o   Adoption implications. How much will it cost for the business to adopt the new technology? How long is needed to recover the initial adoption cost?

·      Technology Considerations

o   Compatibility considerations. Will the new technology be compatible with existing technologies currently implemented?

o   Potential applications. How might the new technology be applied to synergize with existing technology/processes?

o   Alternative competing technologies. Is there an alternative, cheaper technology available that provides the same benefits as the new technology in question?

Following that, Prof went on to describe a couple of ways that technology assessment and forecasting can be conducted.

These are:

·      Brainstorming exercises

·      Trend Analysis and Extrapolation of current trends

·      Technology Roadmap-ing

·      Simulation Modeling

·     The Delphi Method

Interesting Observations and Ideas/Key Takeaways

On the topic of the importance of technology assessment and forecasting, I present to you this article - Brain Control

This article describes how a professor in MIT has managed to alter the behavior of mice by using light to turn neurons in the brain of the mouse on or off.

Ed Boyden has created an implant that is able to trigger neurons in the brain of mice through the use of flashing LEDs, effectively controlling the behavior of these mice.

“Mouse brains, or any other brains, wouldn't normally respond to embedded lights. But Boyden, ….has modified certain brain cells with genes that make light-sensitive proteins in plants, fungi, and bacteria. Because the proteins cause the brains cells to fire when exposed to light, they give Boyden a way to turn the genetically engineered neurons on and off.”

This is Mind-control technology in the making! What if this technology were developed to work on humans? This is one technology where I believe that technology assessment and forecasting is especially important! The possible implications of this technology are endless! The ethical considerations of this technology are enormous!

Issues for Further Discussion

·      How useful do you think technology assessment and forecasting is in the world today?

·      Might there be any way to shorten the time taken for a new technology to make its way down to consumers? Most of the time, “cutting-edge” technologies available to consumers are already “outdated” when the technology is introduced to the consumer market.

·      With regards to the Mind-control article above, are there certain technologies that should NOT be developed? Might it be better if mind-control were not developed? This would prevent the abuse of mind-control technology in the future. Mind-control is indeed a scary thing!

Personal Ratings

(8/10) This session was very interesting. Through the presentation of my peers, I was introduced to many new and emerging technologies that have the potential to change the world. I am very excited for the next few years when these emerging technologies complete the development phase.

Session 9

Session 9

SESSION 9: REVIEW

Topics covered:

·       Emerging and future technologies

Videos watched:

1.     Claytronics

2.     A1 perfect woman

3.     Augmented reality

Brief Overview/ Summary

·       Emerging and future technologies

Everyday, new discoveries are made and new technologies are created. Computers that are sold in the consumer market as “cutting edge” are usually outdated before they are even bought. Surely something must be driving the research and development of these emerging technologies?

During class, we discussed several drivers for the development of emerging and future technologies. They are:

1.     Unmet market opportunity and need (market-driven research and development)

a.      This type of driver operates on the principle of identifying a need in society and conducting R&D in order to create a product that meets that need.

2.     Growing body of scientific and technological know-how make new technologies that were inconceivable even 10 years ago increasingly possible.

a.      Computers 30 years ago used to take up entire rooms and were only able to perform the relatively simplest of tasks. Compare those computers to computers today that fit into a standard A4 sized envelope (Apple MacBook Air). Just yesterday, the new MacBook Air was released with an even slimmer form factor than its predecessor. All these innovations are made possible by new technologies like the 45nm transistors and CPUs.

3.     Supply can sometimes create demand

4.     Sometimes, consumers will not realize demand for a particular product until the product is already in the market. One very good example would be the mobile phone. Before the invention of the mobile phone, people scoffed at the idea of needing to carry a mobile phone. Look at how integral our mobile phones are to our lives nowadays!

5.     Mass media and advertising

a.      The mass media has a very big influence on consumers. It has the power to change perceptions and create demand for a particular product. All one has to do is to watch a “Did you know” video on YouTube to experience a change of perception.

Interesting Observations and Ideas/Key Takeaways

·       Emerging and future technologies

Many interesting observations during this week’s session came from the presentations by my classmates. However, I’ve decided to focus on the most interesting. My interesting observations are from a presentation by my friend, Qing Yun, titled: Love + Sex with Robots

The presentation was based upon a book by the same title that looks at the history of teledildonics, the psychological aspect of love and sex and how this relates to robots.

A very interesting point of discussion that came up during the presentation was the possibility of human-robot marriages. Might we see human-robot marriages in the future? What would be the social implications of such a thing? For most of the world, gay marriages will hardly warrant a raised eyebrow. I remember reading a newspaper article some time ago of this man marrying his TV. If people can marry inanimate objects, would it not be much easier to marry an object with some form of intelligence? If robot marriages become commonplace in the future, robots will be the first man-made objects to be raised to a level of equal standing as that of man.

Another interesting observation that resulted from the discussion of this presentation was that the Pornographic industry seems to be the industry that most readily embraces new advances in technology. Although slightly off topic, it was pointed out that even before Avatar, the poster boy for 3D films was released, plans were already underway to film a pornographic movie in 3D. One might infer that the level of acceptance towards new technology is so high in the pornographic industry because it seeks to satisfy a very basic human need.

Issues for Further Discussion

·       Emerging and future technologies

1.     Artificial Intelligence is one of the many new and emerging technologies that and is frequently discussed. So far, man has been able to create autonomous beings, but has been unable to replicate any form or semblance of intelligence. Given the enormous effort currently devoted to A.I., do you think there is a possibility of Artificial Intelligence exceeding the capabilities of Human Intelligence in the future?

Personal Ratings

(8/10) This was a very interesting session. The topics were interesting, the viewpoints and insights shared by my classmates were very intriguing and many different sides of the proverbial coin were seen. This session was thoroughly enjoyable.

Session 8

SESSION 8

Unfortunately, i couldn't make it for TWC class this week. I wasn't feeling very well. In lieu of my usual post about the week's session, i've decided to review an article which ties in with this week's topic - Energy and World Change (Past, Present,and Future)

The article that i've chosen is Tiny Generators Produce Electricity from Ambient Vibrations

Brief Overview/Summary

In a study funded by the National Science Foundation, Sandia National Laboratories, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology, scientists at the University of Michigan have developed mini-generators that have the ability to produce enough electricity to power small electrical devices such as wristwatches, pacemakers or wireless sensors. According to the article, these mini-generators are "highly efficient at providing renewable electrical power from arbitrary, non-periodic vibrations." What exactly are "arbitrary, non-periodic vibrations"? These vibrations include vibrations caused by human movement, vibrations from cars travelling along a road, vibrations from machinery like washing machines, industrial machines, etc....

The researchers at the University of Michigan have managed to build 3 protoypes and are currently working on a fourth generator. 2 of these generators perform energy conversion through Electromagnetic Induction, which is how large scale electricity generation is performed in many power plants today.

The team's 4th prototype, currently still under development, measures only 1 cubic centimeter. It's construction is based on Piezoelectric Material that generates electricity when stress is applied. Possible applications for this prototype are infrastructure health monitoring. The researchers hope that one day, these PFIGs will be able to power bridge monitoring sensors that detect cracks and other structural problems long before it becomes a major problem.

The 3 existing generators have been been able to produce up to 500 microwatts of electricity from typical vibrations found on the human body. To provide perspective, a wristwatch only requires between 1-10 microwatts, or a pacemaker, which requires 10-50 microwatts. Clearly, the energy produced by the PFIG is more than enough to power many low-energy devices available today.
(Can you imagine a wristwatch with a battery that never needs to be replaced?)

Key Takeaways

According to Professor Najafi, these PFIGs are different from existing generators that rely on vibrations from the surrounding environment because these existing devices rely on regular and predictable energy sources. "The vast majority of environmental kinetic energy surrounding us everyday does not occur in periodic, repeatable patterns. Energy from traffic on a busy street or bridge.....for example, cause vibrations that are non-periodic and occur at low frequencies," says Najafi. He continues on to elaborate that "our parametric generators are more efficient in these environments."

Galchev, one of the other researchers, explains that the ultimate goal of this research project is to "enable various applications like remote wireless sensors and surgically implanted medical devices. These are long lifetime applications where it is very costly to replace depleted batteries or, worse, to have to wire the sensors to a power source." In other words, the researchers hope to be able to use these PFIGs in devices such as pacemakers and various monitoring sensors like temperature sensors, and stress sensors. Applying PFIG technology in pacemaker technology has the potential to create a pacemaker that will outlast the life of the user! The thought that immediately comes to mind is that of Tony Stark, from the recent Ironman Movie, who requires a device implanted in his chest to keep him alive. In the beginning of the movie, his device is powered by a cumbersome car battery. However, Tony Stark, being a genius, manages to create a self powered device with the ability to generate energy far greater than what is really needed.

Current batteries are still cumbersome and often a tradeoff between battery size and capacity is required. According to Professor Najafi, "There is a fundamental question that needs to be answered about how to power wireless electronic devices, which are becoming ubiquitous and at the same time very efficient. There is plenty of energy surrounding these systems in the form of vibrations, heat, solar and wind." Utilizing the power of energy-scavenging, batteries to power these small devices would not need to have large capacities, allowing for cheaper, and better production of wireless sensors.

Issues for Further Discussion

Although the PFIGs are still in their infancy, i really do hope to see this new emerging technology being applied in the near future. My issues for discussion are:

1. Other than what has already been listed, what other currently existing technology may be synergized with this emerging technology to create even more exciting possibilities?
2. If this technology becomes so efficient that significant amounts of electricity can be generated, might PFIGs be used as large scale alternative electricity generation, similar to wind farms and solar plants today?

Personal Ratings

(8/10) I found this article to be very interesting. The idea of having batteries that recharge on their own is really exciting! I can't wait to see this emerging technology get past it's infancy and make its way down to consumers.